Recently, steel prices have shown a trend of "narrow-range fluctuations with a slight upward bias," but overall, they remain in a downward trend. The following is a detailed analysis based on the latest market data (as of January 2026):
### 1. Comprehensive Index Trends (Ordinary Steel and Special Steel)
* **Ordinary Steel Composite Index:** As of January 9th, the index was 3452.2 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 13.30 yuan (0.39%) week-on-week, but a decrease of 3.79% year-on-year.
* **Special Steel Composite Index:** As of January 9th, the index was 6585.2 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 11.93 yuan (0.18%) week-on-week, but a decrease of 2.89% year-on-year.
* **Market Forecast:** Although there was a slight upward trend week-on-week, the year-on-year growth remains negative, indicating that recent demand is still weak, and the market is mainly undergoing structural adjustments.
### 2. Price Fluctuations of Specific Varieties
* **Rebar:** Experienced a significant weekly increase, with the average price rising to 3303 yuan/ton (week-on-week). In some regions (such as Hubei), the average price of coiled rebar rose to 3550 yuan/ton, indicating that demand for construction steel still supports local prices.
* **Cold-rolled Coil:** Prices performed weakly, falling by 30 yuan/ton week-on-week. Prices in some areas such as Tianjin and Shanghai remained stable or slightly decreased. This is due to the cold-rolled market being in an adjustment period with high inventory levels.
* **Hot-rolled Coil:** Overall remained stable or slightly decreased, with little price fluctuation in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets recently [[9]].
* **Benchmark Price:** The benchmark price for cold-rolled steel in Fengnan, Hebei, was slightly lowered to 3130 yuan/ton (including tax) on January 28th, a slight decrease from the previous period.
### 3. Supply, Demand, and Market Structure Analysis
* **Supply Side:** Blast furnace capacity utilization decreased, while electric furnace capacity increased, indicating that the industry is undergoing capacity digestion, and some inefficient capacity is being eliminated. The output of the five major steel products increased slightly, but pig iron output increased year-on-year, which may be related to the increase in electric furnace capacity. * **Demand Side:** Although overall steel consumption increased across the five major categories, the transaction volume for construction steel decreased, indicating that real estate demand remains a pressure point.
* **Profit Trends:** Profits for general steel are expected to rebound, while profits for special steel may slightly decline. This is mainly due to low scrap steel prices (lower costs), while long steel prices, although fluctuating, remain at relatively high levels.
### 4. Future Trend Forecast
* **Volatile with an Upward Bias:** Given that post-holiday demand has not yet fully materialized, but the market has already absorbed some inventory, a "volatile with an upward bias" pattern is likely in the short term. In particular, if there is a seasonal recovery in construction activity, steel prices are expected to rebound.
* **Key Focus:** Attention should be paid to changes in benchmark prices (such as the cold-rolled steel benchmark price), the special steel index, and the transaction volume of construction steel, as these will directly determine the direction of future price movements.